Hurricanes Likely Affecting Sales

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on retail sales and consumer spending

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Overall sales tumbled in August as sales of autos, building materials, clothing and electronics declined. Hurricane Harvey can partially be blamed, just as Irma is likely hitting September sales. But expect a rebound in the final quarter of the year.

Excluding gasoline, 2017’s sales are probably up 3.3% — down from 2016’s 3.8% pace. Blame lower auto and restaurant sales, which were expected to cool after surging for several years.

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E-commerce sales will grow 14% this year, slightly less than the 15% gain in 2016. E-commerce has shown remarkably solid growth over the past seven years, and will account for 9% of retail sales (13% of all goods sales) by the end of this year. In-store sales will inch up 1.6%, a slight pickup from last year’s 1.4% gain.

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Building materials seem to be selling as expected after a puzzling slowdown. They should end the year strongly, mirroring the strength in housing construction. Their sales should jump 6.6% for the year, up from 5.8% in 2016.

Restaurant sales are now growing at a more sustainable 3.0% pace, down from 5.5% in 2016. Some chains will find expanding harder because of labor shortages. Higher minimum wages will boost menu prices. Sales grew strongly for six years straight and are due for a breather.

SEE ALSO: 6 Retailers That Can Stand Up to Amazon

Source: Department of Energy, Price Statistics


Source: Kiplinger

Hurricanes Likely Affecting Sales